Mittwoch, 31. August 2011

Capital Flight Proves Confidence in European Interbank System has Collapsed

Capital flight from European banks has now reached such a state that for one undisclosed bank needed emergency funding last week for a mere $5 million. Previously, the ECB stepped in to provide $500 million in emergency liquidity measures to non-disclosed banks.


As money flees Europe, it lands in US banks that do not know what to do with it. Capital flight has led to negative interest rates in the US.

DurationU.S. Japan Germany UK
3-Month-.010.100.970.51
6-Month0.020.110.560.59
12-Month0.080.120.590.53
2-Year0.190.140630.59
3-Year0.320.170.670.75
5-Year0.930.341.201.36
7-Year1.520.591.631.84
10-Year2.181.042.142.49
30-Year3.552.012.983.75


Swelling US Deposits as Money Flees Europe

For a look at European Bank funding needs please see 8 Trillion Euros in Borrow-Short Lend-Long Madness at European Banks; Circuit-Breaker Silliness; Dash for Cash Sends Short-Term Rates Negative Again

"Lehman-Like" Credit Crunch Hits EU

For discussion of the European credit crunch and $500 million in emergency liquidity measures to undisclosed banks, please see "Lehman-Like" Credit Crunch Hits EU; ECB Will Not Disclose Affected Banks; Euro-Style Anxiety Spreads to U.S.

$5 Million in Emergency Funding

$5 million is a trivial amount. That a bank would need it is not.

Jean-Pierre Chevallier writing on Business �conomiste mon�tariste behavioriste discusses the stetup in his latest post ECB: no more bets! More?
The situation is out of control in the euro zone, as I have been writing it for a while?

The interbank market does not work because euro-zone banks managers have lost confidence in other banks. So they keep their cash in US$ rather than lending it to other banks that need it as they would in normal times: ECB had loaned $5 million to a bank on August, 25.

ECB had previously loaned $500 million (USD) on August 17. This caused a flash-crash in U.S. markets.

The problem is serious.
Chevallier notes that the paltry amount of money involved "shows that the interbank system is completely blocked".

Trust in European banks is shot, and by hiding the banks needing emergency liquidity funding, distrust spreads to all banks in the system. Then again, why shouldn't distrust spread?

The entire global financial system is bankrupt. Loans have been made that cannot and will not be paid back.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/Xy_vSJXfvjA/capital-flight-proves-confidence-in.html

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241 Weekly Lost Podcast ? Recon Weekend Review

Weekly Lost Podcast Recon Weekend Review Be sure to RSVP for the LOST Series Finale Party! Click Here To Download In this episode, Stephanie and I give our Weekend Review to Season 6 Episode 8, “Recon.” Don’t forget to give us a call on our listener line. It’s open and ready for your call 24hrs [...]

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/generallyspeaking/~3/XV86Bnsc3TY/

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Iron On Transfer Pencil tutorial

If you're a newcomer to the stitching thing and are a bit stumped by the phrase: "Just print off a copy, transfer to your fabric and off you go!" (I'm sure I've used those words before.) ...Sparkly Green Knickers has put up a iron on pencil tutorial here. And I think it's fabulous! [Check out her cute scooter design too.]

Source: http://stitchybritches.blogspot.com/2008/10/iron-on-transfer-pencil-tutorial.html

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Crochet time: a "shoulderette" to make


shoulderette, originally uploaded by drewzel.


I might have to re-scan the picture as it hasn't come out very well, it's a rather lovely crocheted shrug. If you click on "original" on the Flickr page, the instructions are clear and easy to read.

Source: http://stitchybritches.blogspot.com/2008/08/crochet-time-to-make.html

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Sailor girl and Sailor boy


sailor girl, originally uploaded by 'Playingwithbrushes'.

Given the fact that I've been neglecting my scanning lately, when I find something cute and stitchy in my Interweb travels I have to share with you. Two cuties to stitch, from a vintage colouring book, courtesy of Playing with Brushes' Flickr.

Source: http://stitchybritches.blogspot.com/2008/10/sailor-girl-and-sailor-boy.html

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Yanomama in motion


The Ocelot (Felis pardalis) is a small cat from Central and South America.
The name "ocelot" comes from the Mexican Aztec word "tlalocelot" meaning field tiger.

Source: http://microcosmic.blogspot.com/2007/08/yanomama-in-motion.html

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That's a lot of food

                                                             Scott Beveridge photo


MEADOWLANDS, Pa. ? Jake Karp of Mt. Lebanon, Pa., above, sorts food today as it arrives to the Meadows Racetrack & Casino in North Strabane Township as the clock winds down on its efforts to break the world record for the most food collected in a 24-hour period.


The Great American Food Drive, which began yesterday at 8 p.m., had collected nearly 200,000 pounds of food by about 2 p.m. today, far short of its goal. The casino must collect more than 559,885 pounds of food by 8 p.m. to make the Guinness Book of World Records, organizers said.


"I feel pretty confident we are going to make it," said Ken Westcott, a former mayor of nearby Washington, Pa., and a member of the Washington County Food Pantry board.


Several tractor-trailer trucks had arrived at the casino with food and were awaiting the scales.


But the drive would need another four truckloads and additional donations to break the record, said Chris Plumtree, the pantry's coordinator of charitable giving.


"It's not about breaking a record, but about raising food to help people," Plumtree said.


UPDATE: The casino fell short of its goal, but did collect a whopping 431,000 pounds of donated food and marked a Guinness notation in a category now known as the Great American Food Drive. That record will need to be broken in the future by any other food pantry that attempts to break it, a casino spokeswoman said. The food collected in this drive will feed 10,102 families, she said.

Source: http://scottbeveridge.blogspot.com/2011/08/thats-lot-of-food.html

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First Houses, Now Cars: "Please Take the Damn Thing"

We saw it with homes, especially condos, now we see refusal of lenders to take possession of cars and boats following bankruptcy.


Please consider My lender refuses to repossess my car
Dear Bankruptcy Adviser,
I was forced to file Chapter 7 bankruptcy. I agreed to surrender my vehicle. After my Chapter 7 was discharged, I naturally expected my car to be picked up by the lender. It has now been three months. Is there a required amount of time in which they have to pick it up? I have made many calls about this to my lender. Not one call has been returned. Isn't there something in the law that states they have a time limit to pick up the car, or else release the title to me?-- Jim
The "Bankruptcy Adviser" responded that he is seeing this action more frequently because resale value is "so low that the lender doesn't want to waste resources to repossess, refurbish and resell."

The BA presented three options.
  1. "Keep the vehicle and use it."
  2. "Park the vehicle in a secure, public location and send a copy of the keys via registered mail to the creditor"
  3. "Call the lender every 48 hours until you talk someone into picking up the vehicle."

In regards to option number 2, the BA failed to mention there is a risk the vehicle is towed and storage charges assessed. That risk is so high and the consequences so great that #2 is not a good option at all.

To be fair, the BA does say "The risk for you here is that you will need to confirm that the car eventually was picked up by the proper entity", but that warning is not emphatic enough.

My personal suggestion is keep the vehicle and use it, but please make sure it has legally required insurance.

If someone cannot afford the insurance or this was a second, now unneeded car, then option number 3 could be appealing.

I think that upon proper notification, a lender should lose rights to the property if the lender refuses possession.

In the case of cars and boats that would work. However, in the case of condos where homeowner fees, maintenance, insurance, and back taxes may easily total far more than the home is worth, such a law would still not entice banks to take possession.

By the way, are such loans written off as worthless on the balance sheets of banks? I suspect not.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/7MGxvO_YyQI/first-houses-now-cars-please-take-damn.html

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Claudia, a new little painting...

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/HowToMakeArt/~3/0HHAIsIdbx0/claudia-new-little-painting.html

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James Madison hid his slaves behind his case for freedom

The National Trust for Historic Preservation in Washington, D.C., is rebuilding slave cabins, which once were shielded behind trees to the right of James Madison's Montpelier in the Piedmont of Virginia. (Scott Beveridge photo)


By Scott Beveridge


ORANGE, Va. ? The father of the U.S. Constitution left behind a conflicting legacy in terms of equal rights when it came to slave ownership.


As a young lawmaker James Madison argued in support of abolishing slavery, only to later seek a compromise on the issue to hold the young, divided nation together, said Mike Dickens, a guide at the fourth president of the United States' beloved plantation, Montpelier.


"He died knowing he failed," Dickens said while leading a tour on a hot, muggy July afternoon of the property in Orange, Va., undergoing intense restoration by the National Trust for Historic Preservation.


Dickens' tour focuses exclusively on the enslaved community here, where as many as 110 slaves lived at any given time to run the house and work the tobacco fields.


He begins with the murky story about Madison's grandfather, Ambrose, supposedly having been poisoned by three of the family's slaves six months after he acquired the property in the Piedmont of Virginia in 1723. While the science of proving cause of death then proved unreliable, one of the slaves died by execution, while two others would be convicted, too, only to be returned to the plantation and work there for the remainder of their lives.


"It raises all sorts of questions," Dickens said, including one about why slaves at that time would have even been afforded their day in court.


"These were real people," he said. "They had certain rights."


Years later, James Madison would plant an alley of pine trees on each side of his stately brick mansion to shield from view the buildings where his skilled slaves worked and also the tiny cabins where they lived. Montpelier's slaves bedded in six, two-room duplexes, which each measured 19 feet by 20 feet and slept 10 people, Dickens said.


Madison shielded the outbuildings, having stated his house did not "look tidy" sandwiched between them, Dickens said.


Meanwhile, Madison would write the draft of the U.S. Constitution in the second-floor library of the big house under the direction of America's founding fathers. He did so while reading books written in several languages on the topic of governmental policies sent to him from abroad by Thomas Jefferson.


He would later author the Bill of Rights after the First Congress convened in 1789, with a personal master slave at his side. On one trip to Philadelphia, he wrote home that his slave Billey "has been tainted by freedom" and argued in support of setting the man free.


Once freed Billey chose the name of William Gardner, went on to become a shipping agent and did business with the Madison family - while his parents remained enslaved at Montpelier. Gardner likely wanted to keep a good relationship with the Madisons to ensure his parents were treated properly on the plantation, Dickens said.


Gardner soon went missing at sea during a storm, and Madison "had enough decency in his soul that he wrote to Gardner's parents that he had perished," Dickens said.


He ends his tour in the slave cemetery, where tombstone are barely visible on grounds covered in periwinkle. He breaks off a piece of the green vine and says, quietly, that most slave cemeteries like this one are buried under the plant because its leaves break off in fours and resemble a Christian cross.


"Madison deserves some postmortem credit," Dickens said.


Madison authored the 14th Amendment, which states the federal government cannot take away a man's liberties without due process, he said.


"And he helped to form the U.S. Supreme Court, which used it to put an end to the Jim Crow era," he said.




If you go make sure to set aside time to also visit the nearby segregated 1910 Southern Railroad train depot, shown above, which has been restored by the Montpelier Foundation without changing its separate entrances for coloreds and whites. Its two waiting rooms, one smaller for black people, were required by segregation laws on the books in Virginia from the 1890s until the 1960s. And don't miss the freedman's cabin, either. It's one of just two such remaining log houses built by an emancipated slave in this state about the time of the Civil War. The house, shown below, was built by George Gilmore, a slave born at Montpelier after he was freed in 1865 during federal occupancy of the area.


Source: http://scottbeveridge.blogspot.com/2011/08/james-madison-hid-his-slaves-behind.html

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Enjoy England?


Margate, not the best seaside town England has to offer.
Being an Aussie gal, I'm probably particularly fussy about beaches

Source: http://microcosmic.blogspot.com/2007/08/enjoy-england.html

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257 Weekly Lost Podcast ? What They Died For IR

Weekly Lost Podcast What They Died For IR Be sure to RSVP for the LOST Series Finale Party! Click Here To Download In this episode, Stephanie and I our initial reaction of Season 6 Episode 16, “What They Died For IR.” Don’t forget to give us a call on our listener line. It’s open and [...]

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/generallyspeaking/~3/iwEGS0fqbVE/

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Dienstag, 30. August 2011

Retail Giant in Australia Warns of Massive Price Deflation and Falling Sales, "Hardest Christmas in Retailer Lives" Coming Up

The CEO of Harvey Norman, Australia's largest electrical and furniture chain, warns of massive price cuts and a Christmas Retail Shocker.
"Retailers will have the hardest Christmas in their lives," said the boss of the country's biggest electrical and furniture chain .

"I see unemployment going up, small businesses going under, manufacturing under huge duress and tourism hit very badly. I don't think the outlook will improve."

He said Harvey Norman would crank up its online strategy in October, but he didn't expect it to return profits.

"Our sales in technology, computers and television have been hit badly because of price deflation," he said." Televisions were the biggest offender.

"Prices have dropped by so much we have to sell three times as many TVs to get the same revenue.

"The same goes for computers -- they are half their price of a year ago -- and we have to sell twice as much to stand still.

"Even whitegoods and washing machines are 10 per cent cheaper today.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/o2a7OTvUWv8/retail-giant-in-australia-warns-of.html

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Missing: poor kids in college

Home away from home came in the form of a love seat for California University of Pennsylvania freshman Kody Wisilosky of Connellsville, Pa., not shown, above, to park in to study or play video games in his dorm. (Scott Beveridge/Observer-Reporter)


By Scott Beveridge

CALIFORNIA, Pa. ? It struck me last week while reporting on move-in day at California University of Pennsylvania that I probably wouldn?t have had the opportunity to attend college as a freshman in 2011.

While watching today?s new high school graduates move mountains of belongings into Cal U.?s dorms, I also wondered how their displays of acquired stuff would have made a kid like me feel in 1974 on my first day at college, having come from a low-income family. I mean it took two vehicles in some cases Thursday to bring one new kid to the campus.

I went to Edinboro State College with barely enough beloingings to put inside a cheap, black Masonite footlocker my parents purchased the previous year at Hill?s Department Store as my Christmas present. I packed it the following August with my junk, including a coat that wasn?t warm enough for the upcoming winter, and went to Edinboro wearing shoes with holes in their soles and just enough money to pay for my first semester?s books.

That was all we could afford with mom and dad each earning a little more than minimum wage two years after he lost his skilled labor job at a steel mill, when it forever shuttered its gates.

Fortunately, though, their incomes qualified me for state and federal college grants that covered the entire cost of tuition and room-and-board my first term and a good portion of those costs for the next three years after transferring to Indiana University of Pennsylvania.

Those grants since have disappeared. On top of that, my less-than-stellar high school academic performance and college entrance exam score wouldn?t have been good enough now for acceptance into some of Pennsylvania?s state universities, which claim to have raised those bars on prospective applicants.

These things also made this newspaper journalist wonder if Pennsylvania and its public universities have squeezed out the poor.

Source: http://scottbeveridge.blogspot.com/2011/08/missing-poor-kids-at-college.html

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Five Rules to Remember When Dealing with Real Estate Agents; Why are New Home Sales So Low? How Big is the Pool of Eligible Home Buyers?

A reader asked me to comment on historically low mortgage rates and their effect on housing. He asked because Realtors are telling him mortgage rates prove now is a "great time to buy".


That comment prompted me to write Five Rules to Remember When Dealing with Real Estate Agents

Rule Number One

Real estate agents will always say "Now is a Great Time to Buy" no matter what the trend of prices, mortgage rates, or inventory.

Here are some phrases to expect depending on current conditions.

  1. Prices are going up, better act fast.
  2. Alternatively, prices are falling, homes won't last long at these prices.

  1. Interest rates are going up, better buy quick before you get priced out.
  2. Alternatively, mortgage rates are falling, they won't go much lower.

  1. Inventory is huge. It's a buyers' market.
  2. Alternatively, Inventory is shrinking fast. Don't let your dream home pass you by.


Rule Number Two

Unless you specifically have a buyers' agent negotiating on your behalf, the agent represents the seller.

Rule Number Three

The agent has only two missions:
  • To get you to buy something
  • To get you to pay as much as possible so the agent make the largest commission possible

Rule Number Four

As a result of rules one, two, and three, it is imperative to be skeptical about anything positive your agent says.

Rule Number Five

It's equally important, if not more important, to take cues from what the agent does not say. For example, if the agent does not say anything about the school district, it is probably a poorly rated school district. Also, don't expect the agent to tell you if a crack house is next door, gangs have taken over a neighboring block, the tap water tastes like sulfur, or the street floods every April. At most, agents will only disclose what the law says they must.

How Big is the Pool of Eligible Home Buyers?

Here is a set of questions that will explain what is happening now.

How many people ....
  1. Don't have a house?
  2. Want a house?
  3. Can afford a house, upkeep, and property taxes?
  4. Have a needed cash cushion in the bank?
  5. Have a decent down payment for a house?
  6. Have a salary that can support interest and principal payments even at these low rates?
  7. Are not scared s*less about the loss of a job, assuming they do want a house and meet the rest of the conditions?
Someone needs to meet all of those conditions before they will buy a new house. How many is that?

I just happen to have the answer.

New Home Sales at 1963 Levels

The Los Angeles Times reports New home sales drop to six-month low
Sales of newly built homes fell in July to the lowest level in six months, as the nation's housing market continues to struggle.

Newly constructed single-family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000, putting the industry on a pace to post the lowest annual sales since the Commerce Department began keeping data in 1963.
Is the eligible buyers' pool getting bigger or smaller?

The trend says smaller, in spite of falling interest rates and falling prices. Many items on my 7 point list are more important than interest rates, notably 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7.

That is the psychology of the situation and I see little reason for it to change until the labor market changes first.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/rWbgXPVMukQ/five-rules-to-remember-when-dealing.html

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Embellishing the Runway (with beads !)




Project Runway season 9 is in full swing, and this year, I decided (last minute) to join in the fun of designing accessories for each week's winning outfit and posting them in a Flickr group called
Embellishing the Runway. I knew about it last year from my beading friends on Facebook but didn't think I could keep up at the time. This year seems right so I joined a day before the first week deadline. I managed to create a simple bracelet which captures the colors of the winning design by Bert Keeter. I used a basic four bead herringbone stitch which works up quickly and chose some greys and orange (the closest thing I had was more of a pumpkin color). The winning design for this week seems to have stirred up alot of controversy and I'm late starting so it looks like some midnight beading sessions are in order this week ! More pictures posted in the coming weeks (fingers/beading needles crossed !)

Source: http://ambrosianbeads.blogspot.com/2011/08/embellishing-runway-with-beads.html

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255 Weekly Lost Podcast ? Across The Sea Initial Reaction

Weekly Lost Podcast Across The Sea Initial Reaction Be sure to RSVP for the LOST Series Finale Party! Click Here To Download In this episode, Stephanie and I share our initial reaction to Season 6 Episode 15, “Across The Sea.” Don’t forget to give us a call on our listener line. It’s open and ready [...]

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/generallyspeaking/~3/UiEA2wb8GV0/

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This pen eases my guilt

This is a confession that troubles the environment and me: I drink a lot of water sold in plastic bottles.


Water is the only liquid that satisfies my thirst and I don't like contributing to the flow of new plastic into landfills or recycling bins. But I do. Every day.


Well the Jacksonville, Fla.-based Pilot Corporation of America has come up with a pen that eases my guilt over buying so many of those bottles of water.


It has introduced the world's first ink pen manufactured from recycled plastic bottles. Its B2p gel roller is cool because its body even looks a bit like a tiny bottle of water. And the pens are refillable, which makes me even happier.


In my job as a reporter I use/lose a lot of pens.


I bought mine yesterday at a Rite Aid in Monongahela, Pa. The pens also can be purchased at Staples, Walgreens, Amazon, Walmart and Office Depot and starting next month, Target, the company tells me today in a Tweet.


(This blog does not do paid product endorsements)

Source: http://scottbeveridge.blogspot.com/2011/06/this-pen-eases-my-guilt.html

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The funny side of Frank Mascara

Former U.S. Rep. Frank R. Mascara of Charleroi looking rather humorous in happening clothing in 1972 after having been elected controller in Washington County, Pa., where he would later serve 14 years as chairman of county commissioners. (Observer-Reporter photo)


By Scott Beveridge


CHARLEROI, Pa. ? Two humorous stories were told Saturday during the funeral for former U.S. Rep. Frank R. Mascara, who was otherwise all business in public.


One involved a tradition he carried out each Thanksgiving at his Charleroi, Pa., home that involved him starting a food fight.


"Imagine to be at his house and him throwing food," said the Democrat's nephew, Joey Mendola, who delivered a eulogy for Mascara in Mary, Mother of the Church in this Southwestern Pennsylvania borough.


It is funny to think Mascara would waste food when his per diem receipts in Washington, D.C., often came from such fast food restaurants as McDonald's and Wendy's rather than those at five-star hotels.


"He'd say, 'That's people's money. That's just wasteful," Mendola, was quoted as saying in the Observer-Reporter while remembering the life of Mascara, who died of lung cancer July 10 at age 81.


The other story came from a 13-year-old grandson, Matthew Mascara, who delivered an eloquent eulogy.


The boy spoke about his having convinced another kid in the family to sneak behind their grandfather and dump handfuls of rock salt on his head.


The other boy complied, and then Mascara just sat there and did nothing, staring with a straight face and salt burning his eyes.


"That's what I call love," Matthew said. "What an amazing man."


It was a fitting end to an impressive and classy funeral carried out by the late congressman's family.

Source: http://scottbeveridge.blogspot.com/2011/07/funny-side-of-frank-mascara.html

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Jesus it was hot

The relatives in July 1952 on the front porch of this old, weather-beaten house that would become home eight years later to my family.


By Scott Beveridge

WEBSTER, Pa. ? The extreme Pennsylvania weather and how it seeped into our old, rundown house was seared decades ago into my childhood memory.

That?s because the clapboard siding protecting our two-story frame house was weathered and pollution-beaten to the point where the outdoors easily swept through its cracks. The only insulation between the outer and inner walls there were the papery nests of wasps that seemed to breed like rabbits.

Our family of five struggled on a good day in the 1960s in that poor pocket of Webster, Pa., along the Monongahela River 30 miles south of Pittsburgh.

And attempting to fall asleep in the then-60-year-old house was nearly impossible on hot-August nights without a fan in the bedroom windows, let alone air conditioning.

I?d moan in bed as a kid with the doors wide open to our three bedrooms while we prayed for the air to circulate.

"Close your eyes and think of Jesus," my mom, June, would respond, as if our family were bidding goodnight like the TV Walton family would do a decade later. "It'll help you fall asleep," she would add.

Mom?s advice offered little solace under the blanket of a hot, humid night. Neither did divine intervention.

Her words weren't received much easier during a January freeze, while the basement furnace died down and no one got up to stoke its embers with new lumps of coal.

Fortunately we had indoor plumbing then, water pipes that were pressured by an ancient, electric pump that kicked on a few seconds after a faucet was opened.


However, the bathroom in a renovated kitchen pantry was soooo frigid in the dead of winter that it took extreme courage to park flesh atop the bitter cold commode seat.

I nicknamed that tiny room the indoor outhouse, and would go on to rejoice the day when dad finally bought a window fan for my bedroom.

That brought a new problem, though.

The fan's blades didn?t seem to help much on those breathless summer nights, whether they were used to draw the stale indoor air out, or more of the muggy outdoor air inside.

Source: http://scottbeveridge.blogspot.com/2011/07/jesus-its-hot.html

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Happy New Year!


Source: http://microcosmic.blogspot.com/2008/01/happy-new-year.html

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Greece 1-Yr Rate 60%; Finland Retains Collateral Demand; Multiple Veto Points; ECB "Litmus Test" Coming Up; Germany Accuses ECB of Treaty Violations

Once again the bond markets have spoken, and once again the message is the same: default. Greek two-year bonds are near 44%, having touched as high as 46%. The interest rate on 1-year Greek government debt is a stunning 59.8%.


Greek 1-Year Government Bonds



Greek 2-Year Government Bonds



44% a year, for two years or whopping 60% for one year, unless of course there is a default.

Not only does the bond market say Greece will default, but the implied haircuts are huge given those interest rates.

Greece Not Saved

Supposedly "Greece was Saved" on that blue circle when yet another bailout (throwing more good money after bad) was approved.

The deal unraveled for numerous reasons but demands by Finland for collateral are at or near the top of the list. Austria, Slovakia, and the Netherlands now want collateral as well.

Under great pressure from Germany, the EU, and IMF, Finland allegedly dropped those demands. It was a lie. Finland did not drop demands for collateral, and that shows you the effect of multiple veto points where such decisions must be unanimous or they fall apart.

17 Veto Points

Please consider A Small Country ? Finland ? Casts Doubt on Aid for Greece
Finland is just one of 17 euro zone countries whose parliamentary approval is needed for the expanded bailout fund and whose domestic politics could upset the process. The case of Finland points to a bigger governance problem in Europe, said James Savage, a professor at the University of Virginia who has published a book on European monetary union.

?You have all these multiple veto points, so they can?t come to a reasonable conclusion, at least not easily,? Mr. Savage said. ?You have increasingly less efficient decisions that are being made.?

Officials from European Finance Ministries spent much of Friday in long- distance negotiations about the collateral issue but did not reach an agreement. Conflicting reports about the negotiations have fed market confusion. The news media in Germany and other countries reported Friday that Finland had dropped its demands, but the reports were swiftly denied by Finnish officials.

The climate created by the collateral dispute could make it more difficult for the European Central Bank to continue to defend Italy and Spain in bond markets and contain their borrowing costs. This month the E.C.B. has spent ?36 billion, or $52 billion, intervening in debt markets in an effort, so far successful, to cap bond yields for the two countries.

The E.C.B.?s task could prove more difficult when trading volume picks up, especially since both Spain and Italy are scheduled to try to sell debt this week. ?A litmus test for the effectiveness of the E.C.B.?s bond-buying program is in the cards,? Rainer Guntermann, an analyst at Commerzbank, wrote in a note.

?We have to listen to the people of Finland,? said a government official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. ?Collateral is an absolute condition for Finland to be involved.?

The collateral dispute is not the only threat to the bailout package. The plan that leaders worked out in July also calls for banks and other investors to swap some of their existing holdings for new bonds that would be worth less but carry guarantees. The plan is designed to cut Greek debt by ?37 billion.

But on Friday, in what was probably a tactical move to put pressure on bond holders to accept the deal, Greece said it would back out of the debt relief plan unless 90 percent of investors agreed, Reuters reported.

?Greece should be allowed to fail,? Robert J. Aumann, who has a Nobel in economics, said at a recent conference in Lindau, Germany, according to a text of his remarks. ?They should repay the debts they feel able to pay and not pay the others.?
Greece Has Failed

Nobel prize winner Aumann says ?Greece should be allowed to fail".

Not quite.

Greece failed long ago. It is only stubborn idiots at the ECB, EU, IMF, and leaders of various countries who insist otherwise.

They insist otherwise to protect their banks. Yet, by throwing more money into the pot that will now clearly be defaulted on, they have made matters far worse.

ECB "Litmus Test" Coming Up

Now that Finland wants collateral for Greek loans, it will do the same if Spain or Portugal needs more loans. Moreover, I keep wondering when the citizens of Spain, Portugal, and Ireland have had enough, given the success of Iceland in telling the ECB, EU and IMF to go to hell.

Iceland is recovering. The PIIGS are not.

German President says ECB Bond Purchases "Legally and Politically Questionable"

How much more Italian bonds can the ECB buy before it runs out of cash, willpower, or completely drains the EFSF ?440bn pool of money?

While pondering the above question please note that German President, Christian Wulff, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, says that ECB bond purchases are "legally and politically questionable".

The Telegraph reports on the accusation by Wulff in Germany fires cannon shot across Europe's bows
In a cannon shot across Europe?s bows, he warned that Germany is reaching bailout exhaustion and cannot allow its own democracy to be undermined by EU mayhem.

?I regard the huge buy-up of bonds of individual states by the ECB as legally and politically questionable. Article 123 of the Treaty on the EU?s workings prohibits the ECB from directly purchasing debt instruments, in order to safeguard the central bank?s independence,? he said.

Mr Wulff said the ECB had gone ?way beyond the bounds of their mandate? by purchasing ?110bn (�96.6bn) of bonds, echoing widespread concerns in Germany that ECB intervention in the Italian and Spanish bond markets this month mark a dangerous escalation.

The blistering attack follows equally harsh words by the Bundesbank in its monthly report. The bank slammed the ECB?s bond purchases and also warned that the EU?s broader bail-out machinery violates EU treaties and lacks ?democratic legitimacy?.

The combined attacks come just two weeks before the German constitutional court rules on the legality of the various bailout policies. The verdict is expected on September 7.

The tone of language from two of Germany?s most respected institutions suggests that both markets and Europe?s political establishment have been complacent in assuming that the court would rubberstamp the EU summit deals in Brussels.

Nobel laureate Joe Stiglitz told the forum that the euro is likely to fall apart unless Germany accepts some form of fiscal union. ?More austerity for Greece and Spain is not the answer. Medieval blood-letting will kill the patient, and democracies won?t put up with this kind of medicine.?

Mr Wulff rebuked Chancelor Merkel, saying political leaders should not break their holidays every time there is trouble in the markets. ?They have to stop reacting frantically to every fall on the stock markets. They mustn?t allow themselves to be led around the nose by banks, rating agencies or the erratic media,? he said.

?This strikes at the very core of our democracies. Decisions have to be made in parliament in a liberal democracy. That is where legitimacy lies.?
Kiss a Larger EFSF Goodbye

  1. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless 17 nations all agree to raise the pool to a collective to the proposed ?2.2 trillion from the current ?440 billion pool.
  2. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless Greece offers hard collateral
  3. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless German courts rubberstamp the EU summit deals
  4. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless 90 percent of investors agree to the deal

In other words, kiss a larger EFSF goodbye, expect a test of the ECB's Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bond purchasing power, and expect a German court test that in-and-of-itself would settle this matter once and for all.

Even if the German courts approve the deal, there are still more than 17 points of failure, counting investors.

One way or another Greece will default. The sooner the better, actually.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/yb1GYNFyII0/greece-1-yr-rate-60-finland-retains.html

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Sailor girl and Sailor boy


sailor girl, originally uploaded by 'Playingwithbrushes'.

Given the fact that I've been neglecting my scanning lately, when I find something cute and stitchy in my Interweb travels I have to share with you. Two cuties to stitch, from a vintage colouring book, courtesy of Playing with Brushes' Flickr.

Source: http://stitchybritches.blogspot.com/2008/10/sailor-girl-and-sailor-boy.html

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Retro kitchen delights

For as long as I can remember I've had a real weakness for retro/vintage crockery. Left to my own devices and without thought or care for life essentials such as food, bills and rent, I could quite happily part with significant chunks of my budget on more vintage kitchen accessories than I could possibly ever hope to use in a lifetime.

I guess part of my love of pieces such as these is the sense of childhood nostalgia they evoke. The colours, patterns and images prevalent in pieces by Hornsea, Staffordshire,Denby, Turi Gramstad Oliver and the like are a tangible link to grandmothers china cabinets, fathers mugs, old storybooks. It is a style and form of artwork that must have imprinted on me at an early age, and that I still respond to with a feeling of lighthearted joy.
It is with no small measure on happiness that I can claim not to remember the last time I bought a 'new' item of crockery, and that my kitchen shelves are bursting with a mismatched assortment of flea market finds.
I plan to start experimenting with some of these design elements in a series of sketches/collages soon.

1. Ceramic pestle and mortar,2.Creamer,3.Pots,4.Owly tea,
5.Tea for 3,6.? 7. Hornsea mug collection, 8. Hornsea mugs ,9.?

Apologies for the couple I forgot to make note of....

Loads more amazing finds in this groups: http://www.flickr.com/groups/vintagehousewares/pool/
and this blog
http://hisforhomeblog.com/

Source: http://microcosmic.blogspot.com/2010/07/retro-kitchen-delights.html

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